2016 Moose Resorts NCAA Tournament Pool

FINAL STANDINGS

4/4/16 11:30pm - WOW! What a finish! Finally we had an exciting game on championship weekend, and Villanova pulled off the minor upset. Congratulations to Clark3 for coming up with the crown by one point after being the only entrant to correctly predict both the final matchup and final result. L Busker 2 came in tough second after running a great early tournament, just barely missing the top prize on that game-ending three. A.Cauley continues the Cauley clan's excellent record in this contest, picking up 3rd. You will pay the Brice! won a tiebreak for fourth, missing the final score by only one point. That unfortunately leaves hard-luck bubble contestant Edward Van Halen on the outside looking in.

• 1st - Clark3 - 114 points - $1580
• 2nd - L Busker 2 - 113 points - $480
• 3rd - A.Cauley - 111 points - $240
• 4th - You will pay the Brice! - 103 points - $120

Congratulations to all who cashed. As for the rest of you, I look forward to seeing you back here for the 18th annual pool. Selection Sunday is March 12, 2017. Look for the brackets to be up around 9pm that night. Bookmark this page, and come back then. Until then, have a great year. Thanks for playing.

-Matt

4/2/16 10:45pm - At least the second game had a little drama, but chalk held and the Tar Heels have advanced to the championship game. I still can't get over how much of a masscre the first game was. I would've bet everything I owned on Oklahoma +43.5. This is why I need to avoid sports gambling (NCAA pools and fantasy football excepted).

Congratulations to L Busker 2, who has now guranteed a win of at least 2nd place, but there's still a lot on the line for Monday's matchup. Clark3 is the other entry with a chance to win if Villanova cuts down the nets. Six people can still win a prize, and five of them correctly predicted the UNC-Villanova final. We'll know where everyone stands in about 48 hours. The remaining scenarios are listed below.

Good luck to everyone who's still eligible for a prize. One more update late Monday/early Tuesday and then we'll be in the countdown to the 18th annual pool in 2017.

4/2/16 7:40pm - Yes, I know there are eleven minutes left in the game. I'm calling this one for Villanova. Down to three potential winners. Congrats to L Busker 2 for locking up a prize.

3/27/16 10:50pm - OK, it's late, and I've tried to throw everything together in a hurry. My summary of possible outcomes are below. My apologies if I've made any errors. If there are any discrepancies between the links and my summary, please let me know. The software should be right. We've got seven entries that can still win, and eight more entries than can win a prize but not the top prize. L Busker 2 is in first place and alive for the top prize.

Good luck to everyone who is still alive. Enjoy your week and I'll be back on Saturday.

3/27/16 8:30pm - Epic fail by UVa there. The favorites strengthened their positions. For those auditing my brackets, that Syracuse win knocked me out of contention for the top prize on all three entries, though I do still have a fighting chance for 3rd/4th.

3/27/16 11:25am - All collections have been made! Prize fund is now guaranteed barring an unlikely bounced check. Thanks to all.

3/27/16 6:50am - After a bunch of wins by top seeds, there were two "upsets" yesterday (although I'm not sure Oklahoma over Oregon counts as an upset in any way other than the seeding). Five entries lost their champ with Oregon, and 51 were busted with the elimination of Kansas. As a result, we're now down to 13 brackets that can win the pool, and 27 total brackets that are alive for a prize of any type.

L Busker 2 is leading the pool by seven solid points, thanks to getting both of yesterday's games right. This entry will win a prize in over half of the possible remaining outcomes (17/32), which is also tops in that category. Both L Busker 2 and A.Cauley are tied for the most ways to win the pool, cleaning up in 6 out of the remaining 32 ways the tournament can finish.

If you add up all the scenarios where specific brackets win, the numbers add up to 35, so there are some scenarios with ties out there. As those of you who've played the pool before know, after tonight's games I will post the prizes for every possible remaining outcome for the tournament, so if you're still alive for a prize you'll know exactly what you're rooting for in the Final Four. That update may be slightly delayed due to Easter Dinner commitments, but it will be up tonight.

Also, significant progress has been made on collections. We are now down to three unapid entries. so more than 98% of the prize fund is now guaranteed. Hopefully we can clean up those last three entries shortly.

To those who celebrate, have a Happy Easter. Enjoy the games today.

3/26/16 8:10pm - Now down to 22 brackets that can win the top prize.

3/26/16 5:45pm - OK. I've received some more entry fees. I've also covered a few from people I know who've promised to pay. Outside those, we're down to six unpaid. Emails have been sent to them. I've decided to wait one more day for real names to be displayed in case I get PayPals quickly. Thank you to those who've already responded.

3/26/16 8:15am - All the number one seeds have advanced in what was predicted to be one of the most wide-open tournaments in years, and the ACC has already guaranteed themselves a team in the championship game by owning one whole side of the bracket. The lack of big upsets has kept a lot of people alive for a prize.

Jeff S and L Busker 2 are tied for first with 70 points out of a possible 96. Orange Nation has the highest possible score with 134, and also wins in the most remaining scenarios (22 out of 128) and cashes in the most possible outcomes (38 out of 128). 38 of the 242 entries are still eligible to win the top prize, including two of mine. Another 38 are eligible for one of the other prizes. That puts 166 of our brackets in the "waiting for next year" column.

There are currently 128 ways the tournament can play out. After today's games, that number will be down to 32. After tomorrow's games, we'll be down to 8, and at that point I'll let everyone know how the standings would look in each specific remaining outcome. Good luck, and enjoy today's games.

3/25/16 2:30pm - Only three payments in today's mail. Still 35 outstanding. That puts us at 207/242 (85.5%), so that is the current portion of the guaranteed prize pool. I've got hard-and-fast promises of payments from 14 people I know and trust, so we should be good for over 90%, but that still leaves 21 entries where I've heard nothing. Real names of people who haven't paid or contacted me will go online over the weekend. I will take them down as collections are made.

3/25/16 8:00am - Chalk held all night, so things were pretty tame in the pool. Three entries had Maryland cutting down the nets, and two had Miami. Other than that the entries that were the most damaged were the ones that needed something wild to happen.

L Busker 1 and Arroyo1325 are currently tied at the top of the standings. MyNamesJohn2 still has the highest possible score remaining.

There are just over two thousand ways this tournament can play out right now, but after tonight's games the number of possible scenarios will be down to 128. We'll have a lot of clarity as to who's in and who's out at that time. Good luck.

3/24/16 9:40pm - I haven't been chasing down the delinquent payers this year as I've been busy, but there are an awful lot of you. Please pay up. Send me an email and I'll tell you how to send via PayPal if you need. Thank you.

3/24/16 7:20am - Didn't receive as many payments as I had hoped during my travels. We are still shy of 200, leaving us at 197/242 (81.4%). I've heard from about 12 of those that payment's in the mail, or I have plans to pick up the check personally. No problems there, but that still leaves over $300 in unaccounted entries. Please send in your entry fee today if you haven't already. Remember, failure to pay earns a permanent banning from the pool, and I will post the names of those who've not paid.

3/22/16 9:15am - Just received payment for 30 entries, putting us at 175 (72.3%).

3/21/16 9:40pm - Standings have been updated to reflect payments received as of today. I'll update again on Wednesday and follow-up with those still outstanding at that time. Only 145 payments received so far (59.9%). Get that check in the mail if you haven't already!

3/21/16 12:10am - What a finish to the late games on Sunday. Fantastic entertainment, even if it does mean nationwide sleep deprivation on Monday morning.

We've got a 5-way tie for first with 48 points, but you could argue MyNamesJohn2 has the best bracket because he has the highest possible score of 140. Either way, there's a lot of basketball yet to be played.

The "possible outcomes" tab is now live. It will let you know if you have a chance to still win a prize. The software has calculated all 32,768 possible ways the tournament can end, and figured out how many of those scenarios will pay off your bracket. With so many favorites surviving, 119 entries (49.2%) still have a chance of winning this thing. 173 entries (71.5%) are still eligible for one of the cash prizes. To the other 69 of you, I hope 2017 treats you better (especially if you pick UConn). The Bristol Pistols have the most scenarios that let them take down the top prize, winning the championship in 8.1% of the possible remaining outcomes, but remember that those scenarios aren't necessarily the likeliest. The software treats every game like a coin flip in figuring out these percentages. MyNamesJohn2 has the highest percentage chance of winning any prize, at 16.3% of scenarios.

At this point you'll also notice that I've finally caught up processing payments after being away for most of the week, so I've included the PAID column. If you've paid someone who was planning on giving the money to me in person, don't worry. I probably just haven't seen him or her yet due to my travel, and should have it shortly. A couple of you have also notified me that the money is on the way. Thank you. However, if you haven't sent it yet, please do so ASAP. I want to get the collections set as soon as possible.

Thanks, and enjoy your week. I'll update the paid column throughout the week.

3/20/16 10:45pm - Holy cow! That UNI game and Wisconsin game going on at the same time had me wishing I had two TV's in my study. What finishes! A 12-point choke in 44 seconds and a buzzer-beating three. I love March.

3/20/16 7:55am - Not much bracket damage in the final two games last night. Six people had Utah in the Final Four, but beyond that pretty much chalk. Tack-Attack is one clear of the field in first place, but that lead is unlikely to hold since Michigan State is out.

3/19/16 10:20pm - I can't remember the last time two teams that were in the top-5 most picked to win it played in the first weekend, but that's what we had tonight with Kansas versus UConn. UConn's shellacking leaves 13 more brackets busted, as well as my 75-1 bet I just placed in Vegas. Oh well.

The standings are a little misleading right now, since some very good current scores have very low potential scores. After tomorrow's game the software will crunch all the permutations for remaining outcomes and we'll see which brackets are truly doing well.

3/19/16 3:35am - Well, this was a crazy day in the tournament. That Northern Iowa ending was amazing. It's days like today that make the NCAA tournament the amazing spectacle it is, despite the fact the NCAA is an incredibly flawed organization. Shamgod 3 remains one clear of the field, though he is no longer anywhere near perfect. Having Michigan State in the final game may kill his entry anyways. We had one more bracket bust with Texas, and then 76 bust with Michigan State. A full 73% of you had Michigan State in the Final Four, so the bracket busting is pretty pervasive.

If you had Michigan State winning it all, my condolences. Otherwise you've probably still got a chance. Good luck to you.

3/18/16 6:25pm - Wow. Usually we get one tame day in the first round, and one lunatic today. Today was probably the most lunaticky-est (it's a word) in pool history. I don't think there's even been a situation before where the most commonly-picked winner went out in their first game. Wild. More analysis at the end of the night.

3/18/16 12:45am - While Thursday's games had some decent upsets, the lack of a true shocker kept things pretty tame in the pool. Only one entrant lost his championship pick today, and only five others lost their national runner-up, most due to Arizona's early exit. If you believe the old adage that you can't win the pool on the first day, but you sure can lose it, then today was a day most entrants did well by not making any big mistakes.

Impressively enough, one player, 2013 pool champion Shamgod 3, went 16-for-16, giving him the only perfect first day this year. Providence, the alma mater of his bracket namesake God Shammgod, kept his picks unblemished with that last-second win against some shoddy defense.

I've got a full day on my plate tomorrow and may not be able to update the games constantly, but I'll keep up with them as much as I am able. Enjoy the remainder of the first round.

3/17/16 9:20pm - Four brackets remain perfect.

3/17/16 5:35pm - Yale was picked by a good number of people in the pool. Still 23 brackets are perfect through seven games. One bracket was busted with Baylor's ouster, but 241 brackets still have their champion alive.

I went ahead and marked Kansas as a win, counting on their 20-point lead to hold up. If that turns out to be incorrect for some unfathomable reason, I'll fix it later.

3/17/16 12:20pm - Our count is at 242 entries, which I think is a record. Assuming that there are no duplicates or non-payment issues, prizes will be 1580/480/240/120. Please check your bracket now and let me know if there are any issues, especially if your bracket is somehow missing. I have email backup for each bracket entered and I should be able to investigate the claim easily enough.

In case you were curious, Michigan State is the favorite pick of this year's entrants. 76 of you (31%) have chosen them to cut down the nets. Kansas was chosen by 51 entrants (21%), and North Carolina was chosen by 37 entrants (15%). Despite getting number one seeds from the committee, there wasn't a lot of respect shown for Virginia (9 entries, 4%) or Oregon (5 entries, 2%). UConn, in what is known as "regional bias", has almost as many picks as those two teams combined (13 entries, 5%), and was the fifth most popular team chosen.

For the record, I entered three brackets, all with my real name. Go ahead and print those out if you want to audit my results this year. Those are the only entries from my house.

Updates may be a little spotty today, but I'll try to keep up with the results as best I can. Good luck everyone, and enjoy the games!

3/17/16 10:20am - At 220 entries now. Remember, picks will lock at noon EDT.

3/16/16 9:00am - At 72 entries so far, just slightly ahead of last year's pace. We had 199 last year, so maybe on a 200-220 pace?

3/13/16 7:15pm - Welcome to the 17th annual Moose Resorts NCAA Basketball Pool, home of big prizes and dated HTML web pages. I expect approximately 175-250 entrants this year, which would yield a first place prize of over $1000. Full details and rules are in the Frequently Asked Questions, but here are the highlights:

• $10 per entry (enter as many times as you want, but give each entry a unique, PG-13 or tamer name).
• Click on the above link to fill out your entry online.
• Remember to include your real name and email address in the right spots on the entry form. Only your entry name will show up on the website. I will not publish your real name online unless it's also your entry name.
• 65% for 1st place, 20% for 2nd place, 10% for 3rd place, 5% for 4th place (values may be rounded, but 100% of entry fees will be paid out as prizes).
• We are not picking the "First Four" games. You can wait until those games are over if you choose, or you can just fill out the bracket now and if you pick the winner of a play-in game to advance past their next opponent, you'll get points no matter which team advances.
• Please put your check in the mail ASAP for your entry fees, sending them to:
  
  address redacted until next year
  Make sure you include the names of the entries the check is paying for somewhere in your correspondence. Checks must be in the mail by Thursday!!! Also, don't send me PayPal without contacting me first! See the FAQ for more details on electronic payments.
• Picks must be submitted and time stamped before 12:00 noon EDT Thursday, March 17th or they will not be accepted.
• Don't forget to fill in the tiebreaker!
• The points per round are 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 16.

If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.

Questions? Email me here.