2011 NCAA Tournament Pool

4/4/11 11:35pm: Q: What do you call a team that won a horrifically ugly game tonight? A: National Champions. Congrats to UConn on an amazing eleven-game winning streak that made my home state proud.

Major congratulations go out to Duke. He won the pool in a tiebreaker and takes home fourteen hundred smackers for his trouble. bennymc #2 probably wishes it was a higher-scoring affair, but four hundred bucks is nothing to sneeze at. MMM219 finished in 3rd and collects two hundred for her effort, and Esquire Heart (don't look at me, I didn't make up that name) gets an even hundo. Congrats to all the winners. I'm sending you all emails now to arrange payment, but sometimes when I send emails about money they wind up in spam folders. If you don't get my email, drop me a line at ncaa@mattolsen.com and tell me the address where you'd like the money sent.

And that concludes our contest for this year. See you in March 2012!

4/2/11 11:15pm: Wow! What a heart-stopper of a game!!! I nearly had a heart attack about nine different times during those last four minutes. Congrats UConn! They'll have to play better on Monday though or Butler will walk to a national championship.

One game to play, three potential pool winners. No one is guaranteed a cent yet.

4/1/11: PAID IN FULL!!! All entry fees have been received, so the prize fund is official. Thanks to all for making it another year with 100% collections.

3/28/11 8:20pm: One more entry fee in, so 209 out of 210 entries have paid up now. $1390 of the $1400 first prize is now guaranteed.

3/27/11 7:15pm: Who would've thought the only uncompetitive game of the regional finals would be VCU's romp over Kansas? What an incredible tournament this has been. Great fun to watch.

We're now down to eight possible tournament scenarios, with the prize winners for each listed below. Even though the tournament can finish eight different ways, there are only four ways the pool can go. The winner of the Butler-VCU game doesn't really matter for the purposes of our contest. Essentially it comes down to four different final game scenarios: Kentucky wins, Kentucky loses, UConn wins, UConn loses. Good luck to all still in the running for a prize!

3/26/12 9:20pm: Rookie2011 takes the pool lead with UConn's nail-biter of a victory. She wins the pool in 9 out of the remaining 32 possible outcomes (28.1%). We're down to nine entries that can win (4.3%) and twenty-three entries that can cash (11.0%). Full breakdowns of every possible remaining scenario will be up about an hour after the conclusion of tomorrow's final game.

3/26/12 7:00pm: Congrats to J Raino 2, who was the only entrant to correctly predict Butler would make the Final Four. Florida's loss shattered four brackets' chances of winning it all. We're now down to 12 potential winners.

3/26/12 8:20am: The bouncing of Ohio State has greatly reduced the number of potential winners in the pool. momofthree2 is still in first place, but cannot finish better than third. Only two entries still have their entire Final Four alive (Rookie2011 and bennymc #2), both of whom picked UConn, UNC, Florida, and Kansas. Unsurprisingly, these two both have the best chances of finishing in the money as well. Only 16 entries (7.6%) still have a chance at the top prize. 42 entries (20.0%) are still alive for a prize.

Good luck to those still alive, and enjoy today's games (especially if you're rooting for UConn!).

3/25/12 8:10pm: With both of the early games being huge blowouts for the prohibitive favorites, I'm going to advance UNC and Kansas in the brackets now. If for some reason Marquette or Richmond mounts a miracle comeback, I'll fix the brackets later.

3/25/12 2:15pm: Ahhh, much better. 12 of the unpaid entries have been cleared, so we're down to two outstanding. $2080 of the $2100 prize funds are now guaranteed. FYI, if I do have to reduce the prize due to a non-payment, it'll be taken out of the 1st place prize.

3/24/11 11:58pm: Tonight's late upsets caused a lot of brackets to go into the garbage. In an ironic twist of fate, momofthree2 is in the lead, but cannot win the pool. Have no fear though if you're a fan of hers, momofthree (1) is still eligible for the top prize.

We're now down to 32 entries that can win the top prize (15.2%). 68 entries (32.4%) are still eligible for one of the top four cashing spots. For the record, I entered the day with the highest potential scoring entry, but I ended the day with all three of my entries mathematically eliminated from prize contention. All four entries in my house are out of the money, thereby ensuring I don't have to answer any questions about how I rigged the pool in my own favor this year. One of these years I look forward to fielding those accusations.

3/24/11 10:00pm: ZERO payments received again today. Warning is hereby given that I will be distributing the real names of people who do not pay. By now I'm usually down to two or three people who haven't paid.

Go UConn!!!

3/23/11: ZERO payments received today. 14 delinquent this late is an unfortunate record. I guess it's time for the nasty emails to begin.

3/22/11: Standings page has been udpated with those who have paid so far, including checks I received today. I've received 196 out of the 210 payments due (93.3%). If you haven't yet sent me your entry fee, it is imperative that you drop me an email or (even better) send your entry fee(s) via PayPal bank draft (no credit card) to ncaa@mattolsen.com. Getting paid in full vastly increases the chance that I will run the pool again next year. Thank you for your prompt attention to these outstanding payments.

3/21/11: A very exciting first weekend. We've already got a number-one seed on the sidelines. The Southwest has certainly opened up for Kansas, with their remaining opponents being the 10, 11, and 12 seeds. Thursday and Saturday's games certainly produced some good upsets. How about that Big East? Ugh... Charles Barkley certainly isn't impressed. I can't say I blame him.

Anyways, you're probably more interested if you can win some money. momofthree2 is still holding on to the lead by one point, but the highest potential possible score of 138 belongs to Matthew Olsen #3 (don't worry, I'll blow it). 96 entries (45.7%) are still alive for the first place prize. 156 of the entries (74.3%) are still alive for one of the paying positions.

You may wonder how the "Possible Outcomes" calculations work. Well, there are 15 games remaining, which means there are two-to-the-fifteenth-power (32,768) possible ways the tournament can still play out. Granted, not all of these are equally likely, but that is the number of potential outcomes remaining. The software has crunched all the remaining possible outcomes, so the Possible Outcomes report will tell you how many of those scenarios result in you finishing either first or in one of the other prize-paying positions. If your number of possible paying outcomes is zero, then this pool isn't going to pay off for you, and you should start trying to find your way into a Frozen Four pool ASAP. Or watch a lot of spring training games. Or catch up on those old 30 Rock episodes that are queueing up on your TiVo. Something like that.

The next standings updates will be Thursday night, but I will continue to update the paid entry list throughout the week. Remember, if you haven't sent payment yet, see below for how to send it and please send it along quickly. I'm like a PBS pledge drive... I won't shut up until I get my money, so just send it along and spare everyone my pleadings.

Enjoy your week, and good luck to those still in the running.

8:40pm 3/20/11: That controversial ending in the Texas-Arizona game had quite an effect on the pool. It's a four-point swing towards the 60 people who picked Zona there. Keep this one in mind when the final pool winner is crowned, as that non-call at the end could very easily mean a $1000 swing here.

12:05am 3/20/11: Another exciting day in the books. momofthree2 has taken a one-point lead, but has lost one Final Four team. A couple of entries still have potential final scores of 150.

After tomorrow's games conclude, we'll have the first report of who's mathematically still in contention and who's been eliminated. Something to look forward to (or dread, depending on how you're doing). Good luck!

9:25pm 3/19/11: WOW!!! What a finish in the Pittsburgh-Butler game! Two absolutely brain-dead fouls in the final 1.4 seconds. This throws the pool into disarray. 11% of entries had Pittsburgh winning the whole thing. 61% of entries had Pitt in the Final Four. All kinds of bracket-busting happening here. A total of 29 entries (13.8%) have now lost their championship pick. Only 6 out of 210 entries correctly predicted Butler, and only 13 correctly predicted Richmond.

12:25pm 3/19/11: Payment information has been updated on the standings sheet. 81.0% of entries are accounted for. Please remember to send your entry fee ASAP if you have not done so already. You may send via PayPal (bank draft only, no credit cards) to ncaa@mattolsen.com if that's easier.

8:35am 3/19/11: My apologies to people who logged in late last night or early this morning. I tried to stay up to enter all the results from last night's games, but in my tired haze I mis-entered the result of the Georgia/Washington game. Sorry. That result has now been corrected and the standings have been updated. SU & Blue has sole possession of the lead for the second day in a row, having predicted 28 out of the first 32 games correctly. It's still just about anybody's pool with 97.6% of entries still having their championship pick alive. Enjoy today's games!

5:15pm 3/18/11: The Standings page has now been updated with all the checks I have received through today. I've received 64.8% of the entry fees so far. If you're not marked as paid yet, but you've already sent the check, then don't worry about it. If you haven't sent the check yet, please do so no later than Saturday 3/19 (tomorrow)! If you can't do that, send me an email and I'll send you PayPal information so you can send me the funds electronically. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

5:30am 3/18/11: SU & Blue has the sole lead after day one's action, correctly predicting 15 out of the first 16 games. Very impressive. Despite the first day's excitement, not too many brackets were busted completely. Four players lost their championship picks (2 Louisville, 1 St. Johns, 1 Utah State), and 96.3% of entries can still get a score of 130 or higher.

8:00pm 3/17/11: No perfect entries left. We have a 32-way tie for first at 7 out of 8. No one had Vanderbilt in the Final Four, so that upset wasn't too damaging to anyone from a pool perspective, though I know one Vanderbilt alumnus who will be pretty peeved at work tomorrow.

4:00pm 3/17/11: Louisville has busted the first brackets. Two entries had them winning it all, and 22 had them in the Final Four. Only 2 entries (Jen G. and Fraser2 remain perfect). That didn't take long...

3:00pm 3/17/11: If you picked both Butler and West Virginia to win their opening games, congratulations. You're now in an 87-way tie for first place.

At this point I thought I'd point out some features that will be available throughout the pool. When you click on the results link (it will always be at the top of the page) it'll take you to the standings page. You can sort any column by clicking on the column header. I will also add the paid/not-paid data to this report sometime this weekend. There are also other reports to view from the drop-down menu in the upper-right hand corner.

Possible Outcomes will be enabled after the games on Sunday, March 20th. It will tell you if you're still mathematically eligible for a prize.

Summary of Picks lets you know how many entries picked each team to go to a certain round of the tournament. For example, this screen will tell you that 29% of the entries chose Ohio State to win it all.

Tournament Results shows the tournament bracket to date.

Once we get to the Final Four I'll post every possible remaining outcome.

Enjoy the games!

1:45pm 3/17/11: All the brackets are now available as one giant PDF file. You may wish to save this to your hard drive now if you want to audit the process. My house has four entries ("Jenn Olsen", "Matthew Olsen #1", "Matthew Olsen #2", "Matthew Olsen #3"). The entries are in no particular order (sorry), but you can search the file for specific entries using ctrl-F.

12:15pm 3/17/11 - Time's up. Entries are closed. We've got 210 brackets, so assuming everyone pays the prizes will be:

• 1st place - $1400
• 2nd place - $400
• 3rd place - $200
• 4th palce - $100

Please click on the list above and let me know if you see any problems. Otherwise, good luck and check back for updates as the games finish!

9:40am 3/17/11: Just hit 200 entries.

6:45am 3/17/11: Wow, looks like a big year. Already at 165 entries with more than five hours to go! May exceed 200 this year.

One note: I realize the First Four games have been settled, but they still show up with both teams on their bracket line. Don't worry about this. I just don't want to alter the entry form script for fear of screwing something up. When entering, you should treat those teams as the winners (Clemson, UNC Asheville, UTSA, VCU). When I get all the brackets up on the web site later today, the bracket will only show the 64 teams that are still alive as of this morning. Thanks and good luck!

• $10 per entry (enter as many times as you want, but give each entry a unique name)
• Click on the above link to fill out your entry online
• 65% for 1st place, 20% for 2nd place, 10% for 3rd place, 5% for 4th place (values may be rounded, but 100% of entry fees will be paid out as prizes)
• We are not picking the "First Four" games. You can wait until those games are over if you choose, or you can just fill out the bracket now and if you pick the winner of a play-in game to advance past their next opponent, you'll get points no matter which team advances. So, for example, if you think USC is going to beat VCU, then beat Georgetown, but VCU beats USC and then beats Georgetown themselves, you'd still get credit for the win.
• Please put your check in the mail ASAP for your entry fees, sending them to (redacted until next year). Make sure you include the names of the entries the check is paying for somewhere in your correspondence. Checks must be in the mail by Thursday!!!
• Picks must be submitted and time stamped before 12:00 noon EDT Thursday, March 17th or they will not be accepted.
• Don't forget to fill in the tiebreaker!
• The points per round are 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 16.

If you're new to the pool, and want to see what the pool page looks like, here's last year's pool.

Questions?  Send me an email.