2010 NCAA Tournament Pool

FINAL RESULTS

Here are all the entries in a giant PDF file.

6:45am 4/6 - Congratulations to the Duke Blue Devils on a thrilling win and their fourth title. Butler certainly did itself proud, but that pride won't translate to cash for the people who needed a Butler win to cash in the pool. Congrats to deedlee1 for breaking The Curse of the First Day Leaders. deedlee1 cashed in $920 after going 15-1 in the opening day and correctly predicting that Krzyeywksaslkdfki and company would cut down the nets.

And that concludes the 2010 edition of the Moose Resorts NCAA Pool. Bookmark this page and visit again next year to see the status of the 12th annual pool. If the tournament stays at 65 teams, I'll definitely run it. If the field is expanded to 96 teams, it'll depend on how difficult it is to get updated software to handle it. I'll see you next year. Enjoy baseball season, and thanks for playing.

-Matt

8:50pm 4/5 - Paid in full!!! All entry fees have been received and the prize fund is official.

11:15pm 4/3 - Duke has made my wife a very happy alum, and we've got a final matchup that no one in the pool predicted. We're now down to two players, with Crying Illini and deedlee fighting it out on Monday night. Both have clinched 4th place money ($70) at a minimum. Four others have money riding on the outcome, with Clark2 and AggieWes II pulling for Butler and JayPH1 and HuskieBoy rooting for the Blue Devils. Good luck to all six of you.

I've heard from the one person who hasn't paid yet, and he promised that the money went in the mail on Friday, so hopefully it'll get here Monday and the full prizes will be paid out. If it doesn't get here by Tuesday the top prize will be $910. Otherwise it's $920. Second prize is locked in at $300, third at $150, and fourth at $70.

Next update early Tuesday morning. Enjoy the final, and pray that the NCAA comes to its senses and resists the urge to go to a 96-team tournament.

-Matt

8:30pm 4/3 - What a finish! Great game to watch. Congratulations to Butler for surviving (and I do mean "surviving"!) that finish. Standings are updated. Next update Sunday morning. You can see exactly how you'll finish in any potential outcome by going to the standings page and choosing the potential outcomes link from the top right of the page. Good luck!

5:25pm 4/1 - All but three entry fees collected. Two I believe are the victim of a misaddressed envelope and I'll vouch for them. So, 2nd-4th place prizes are now guaranteed, and 1st place is guaranteed at $910. Hopefully we'll still get to $920. The delinquent entry is labeled as from . He has not responded to my email and has not sent in a check. If you know him, please do me a favor and let him know that he owes me $10. He may wind up as the second person with a lifetime ban shortly.

Thanks for your help.

6:00pm 3/29 - No entry fees in my mailbox today. I know I was impressed earlier with the quick payment of many, but this is quickly turning into the poorest paying year on record. As I noted in the FAQ, chasing down entry fees is the worst part of this pool. Those who haven't paid or responded by Thursday will have their real names published on the wall of shame.

8:25pm 3/28 - And then there were four... both in the tournament and in the pool. We've got four entries who can still take the top prize. Twelve entries can still cash. Without further ado, here's how the last eight scenarios can play out...

So, in short, deedlee1 breaks the curse of first place on the first day if Duke wins, and Carol GO-GO makes some coin if the Mountaineers cut down the nets. If neither of those happens, then what matters is not who wins the title game, but rather who loses it. If Duke gets to the final but loses, then Crying Illini is laughing all the way to the bank. Molive is a happy camper if West Virginia plays on Monday, April 5th but can't get the job done.

At this point, the astute observer may notice that each potential outcome essentially repeats itself. That's because, for the purposes of this pool, the Butler vs. Michigan State game doesn't matter. It matters if the winner of that game goes on to win the whole tournament, but that game itself will have no effect on the pool whatsoever.

So there you have it. Good luck to everyone who's still alive, and pay the *$&% up if you haven't done so already. Have a great week! I'll update the final payments I receive throughout the week, but otherwise you'll next hear from me after the first game of the Final Four.

-Matt

4:35pm 3/28 - No immediate effect from the Michigan State win. All five who could win before can still win. All fifteen who could place in the money can still place.

9:30pm 3/27 - Two regional finals, two upsets. The loss of Kentucky has poked holes in far more brackets than not, and now we're down to only five brackets that can win. This year's top prize will go to either Crying Illini (the only entry to correctly predict both Butler's and West Virginia's wins today), Carol GO-GO, deedlee1, Jeff S, or Molive. There'd be a lot more people still vying for the title if Kentucky had held on. Ten other entries are alive for a lesser prize, meaning that only 10.4% of the brackets still have a pulse.

After tomorrow's two regional finals, I'll post exactly what will happen for each of the remaining eight possible scenarios. If your bracket is still alive, you'll know exactly what you need to happen to win about an hour after the games end.

We're now down to 9 unpaid entries. Four of them have sent me an email. If you're one of the other five, please get that money in the mail Monday morning and drop me a note letting me know you have. Or send me an email and I'll tell you how you can send the funds electroncially. Five entries is more than I usually have to chase down at the end of the second weekend. I'd hate to have a record write-off this year.

Enjoy the last games here in the regional finals. Have a great Sunday.

6:45pm 3/27 - Wow, didn't see that Butler win coming. That shook the pool up something fierce! More analysis coming after tonight's game.

9:30am 3/27 - There's even more clarity now. We're down to 16 entries (11.1%) that can win, and 43 entries (29.9%) that can finish in the money. There is not a single entry with all of its Final Four picks alive thanks to the Midwest regional, since only one entry had either Michigan State or Tennessee advancing to Indianapolis.

We currently have 132 paid entries (91.7%). Several of you who haven't paid yet have dropped me a note letting me know the payment's in the mail. Thanks. Those of you who haven't paid or let me know the check is in the mail, please send me an email ASAP.

I'll update after the first game later today. Enjoy!

6:45am 3/26 - A lot of entries were shaken out last night. We're now down to 26 brackets (18.1%) that can win the top prize. An additional 40 (27.8%) can win one of the other prizes, meaning that fewer than half the entries (45.8%) are still alive for a payout. Things will be even more clear after tonight's games with only 128 possible outcomes remaining (as opposed to the current 2,048). Good luck!

9:30pm 3/25 - Unpaids now marked on all standings reports. Please send in the money if you haven't already.

7:10pm 3/22 - Payment report: so far I have received 118 out of the 144 entry fees. Not bad compared to past years. Thanks to you all for your prompt payment. If it's slipped your mind to put the check in the mail, please do so immediately. Thanks.

8:50pm 3/21 - The first 48 games are in the books, and the big story in the pool is still the absolute devastation from the Kansas upset. Right now Yanks BUY another trophy (great entry name!) is in the lead with a two-point cushion on the field. He wins the top prize in 11.4% of the possible remaining finishes.

We're now down to 15 remaining games, which means there are only two to the fifteenth power remaining possible outcomes. For those of you without a calculator handy, that means there are still 32,768 ways this could play out. When you click on the standings link above, you'll notice on the upper right-hand corner of the page there's a drop-down list that I referenced yesterday. I'll post a picture of it again here for your convenience.

The "Possible Outcomes" report is now live. It will tell you how many of those 32,768 possible outcomes will result in you winning. (Sorry, there's no way to tell how likely those outcomes are, so it's possible that you have a lot of possible outcomes to win, but they may all require Cornell to beat Kentucky. You'll just have to look at your bracket and make an educated guess.) It will also tell you your best possible in-the-money finish. This report should keep you up-to-date on your chances the rest of the way through the tourney. After Thursday's games we'll be down to 2,048 possible outcomes. After Friday it's 128, and after Saturday it's 32. The possibilities skinny down in a hurry, so we'll shake loose a lot of entries by the time the regional finals take place this coming weekend. After the Final Four is set, I will post the outcomes that all of the eight possible remaining scenarios would lead to, and you'll know exactly what you need to cash.

As of now, 65 (45.1%) entries are still mathematically alive for the top spot, and 103 (71.5%) are still alive for one of the prizes awarded to the top four spots. If you're in that other 28.5% that is already out of this year's contest, didn't you have a fun weekend anyways? Wait, don't answer that. Just send in the check.

Have a great week, and good luck to those of you still in the running. Remember, please send in your entry fee if you haven't done so already!

-Matt

10:40pm 3/20

So just how bad is the carnage from the Kansas loss to Northern Iowa? More than half the brackets entered (74 out of 144, 51.4%) picked Kansas to win the whole tournament. 113 entries (78.5%) had Kansas in the Final Four. Every single entry had Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. So, I'd call this a significant event. Heck, depending on how many more upsets we get tomorrow we may see people finish in the money even if they miss the championship pick! Things are getting interesting. Obviously things don't look good for you if you had Kansas winning it all, but if you only had them going to the Final Four it's certainly not time to panic because you have plenty of company.

deedlee1 is back in the lead, and still very much alive despite having Kansas in the final game. Lots of people still in this one. Enjoy tomorrow's games, whether your bracket is busted or not.

-Matt

3:15pm 3/20 - St. Mary's upset of Villanova busted six more brackets, and took out a Final Four pick from 53 brackets. Only two entries correctly predicted St. Mary's appearance in the Sweet Sixteen, so the standings look much the same as they did before, but a lot of brackets now have much lower maximum possible scores.

By the way, for those of you new to the pool, there are several reports you can view. When you click on the standings link at the top of this page you're brought to the current standings. However, there are four other reports you can view as well when you click on the "select report" drop-down at the top right of the page.

The Tournament Results show you the current bracket of completed games. The Bracket Index lets you quickly search for your bracket or any other competitor's bracket. Possible Outcomes will be activated after Sunday's games, and will show you how many possible remaining outcomes will allow a given bracket to win or finish in the money, and Summary of Picks will show you how many people picked each team to advance in each round. You can also sort by any column just by clicking on that column header.

Enjoy today's games, and good luck!

9:30am 3/20 - Congratulations to Chris McMillan #2, who went 15-1 yesterday after a stellar 14-2 start on Thursday to have an unprecedented three point lead after the first round. I don't think 29 is the absolute record for best first round ever since we've had some high scores in upset-lite years, but three points clear of the field after just one round of games is definitely a record. Nice work Chris!

With far fewer upsets on Friday than on Thursday no more brackets lost their championship pick, so 140 out of 144 entries still have their pick to cut down the nets alive. This weekend should shake a lot of entries out, and after Sunday's games I'll be able to tell you which brackets are mathematically eliminated.

Enjoy today's games. I'll update the standings irregularly throughout the day as my schedule allows.

2:30pm 3/19

6:30am 3/19 - No one is perfect anymore, but congratulations to deedlee1 for going 15-1 on the opening day, missing only Texas-Wake Forest. Not a single other person in the pool correctly predicted the Georgetown-Ohio matchup. Anyone who can correctly predict both Georgetown's and Vandy's ousters deserves a round of applause. To give you some perspective as to how difficult it is to go 15-1 with this year's results, ESPN.com's bracket tournament had 4.8 million entries. Only 56 went 16-0. Nice work! Of course, this is the time when I throw a wet blanket on the festivities and note that no one has won the pool after leading on the first day in the ten years I've run it.

Good luck to you all. I'll update the standings irregularly throughout the day as computer access allows.

10:05pm 3/18 - Georgetown's loss takes out another three championship picks, including one of mine. Four brackets out of 144 are now busted. Very tough start for the Big East with Marquette, Georgetown, and Notre Dame all going down (and Villanova almost joining them).

3:15pm 3/18 - Congrats to Uncle Dick, who became the first pool entrant to lose his championship team. Hey, no reason to drag out the sorrow, right?

Noon EDT has come and gone and the games are upon us. Thanks for entering. As noted above, all the entrants' brackets are here in one big file for your review. If you entered and don't see your bracket in that file, send me an email at mattolsen@yahoo.com immediately, forwarding the bracket that the web site emailed to you after you entered your picks. Any missing entries need to be resolved today (Thursday), but I don't expect we'll have any problem with that.

As always I have decided to enter the pool, as has my wife. Our four entries are "Matthew Olsen 1", "Matthew Olsen 2", "Matthew Olsen 3", and "Jenn1". Print them out now if you want to audit me. I feel lucky this year, although I've felt lucky the past ten years as well, but I have yet to cash in my own pool.

The tentative prizes (subject to adjustment due to non-payment or accidental duplicate entries) are:

• 1st place - $920
• 2nd place - $300
• 3rd place - $150
• 4th place - $70

-Matt

The Moose Resorts NCAA Pool is back for its 11th season. As always it's ten dollars to enter. Important note: when you are ready to send me the money note I have a new address. It's in the FAQ. Aside from that there's no major changes from last year. It seems to be working pretty well so I'm not going to tinker with it now.

If you're new to the pool, here's how it works. First, click on the link above to be brought to the online entry form. It's pretty self-explanatory. Enter as many times as you'd like (provided you're willing to pay $10 for each entry). Write a check and put it in the mail to me ASAP (my name and address are in the FAQ), and then check back here each day after the games are finished to see where you are in the standings. Simple, huh?

UConn's absence from the field will take out a lot of the shameless homer picks, so it'll be interesting to see who the field likes the most. Good luck to all of you.

-Matt

• 1 point - 1st round
• 2 points - 2nd round
• 4 points - 3rd round
• 7 points - regional finals
• 11 points - final four games
• 16 points - national champion

Any other questions?  They're probably answered in the Frequently Asked Questions.  Notice how I keep bringing up the FAQ?  That's because it's because it helps both you and me out when you read it.  Please look there first.  If you still have a question after that, send me an email.

Good luck!!!

Questions?  Send me an email.